We have an election

The worst-kept secret in Canada is now out of the bag. There will be a federal election in January. Right now, the expected target date is January 23.

The no-confidence vote went 171-133 Monday night, falling in line with party membership.

Martin will approach Governor-General Michaëlle Jean tomorrow morning to dissolve the government. Martin wanted to announce an election 30 days after the release of the Gomery report concerning the sponsorship scandal. The report is scheduled to be released in early February.

The opposition offered a February election as a possibility. Martin refused, perhaps in part because of his promise.

The minority government of the Liberals fell after 17 months in power. The likely election date of January 23, allows for a week off from the campaign around Christmas time.

The current breakdown of the 308 members in the House of Commons is as follows: 133 Liberals, 98 Conservatives, 53 Bloc Quebecois, 18 New Democratic Party, 4 independents, and 2 vacancies.

The previous four defeats of a no-confidence vote that brought on a federal election were July 1, 1926, Arthur Meighen (Cons.); February 5, 1963, John G. Diefenbaker (PC); May 8, 1974 Pierre E. Trudeau (Lib.); and December 13, 1979 Joseph Clark (C).

The Clark situation is interesting to note, since this will be the first Christmas time election since that 1979 campaign. Clark lost that battle as Trudeau regained power.

But the comparisons end right there. As badly as the Conservatives want this to be about the sponsorship scandal, they need to show what they have to offer to the people of Canada. We'll see if Stephen Harper is ready to show us yet again why he should be prime minister.

Perhaps the Liberals will lose a few seats. Maybe they will gain a few seats in Quebec. But not much is likely to change, except the Conservatives may lose a few seats.

The only thing guaranteed between now and January 23 is that the politics will get ugly in what is supposed to be the time of year when people are friendlier to each other.