Canada goes from way up to way down

UPDATE: The United States downed South Africa 17-0 after 5 innings (the mercy rule kicked in). So Canada does not advance to the next round. Hopefully, the team can build on its successes and learn from its mistakes for the next World Baseball Classic in 2009.


The word "virtually" stands out in my piece on Canada's win over the U.S. on Wednesday. All Canada had to do was beat Mexico, or lose to Mexico and give up less than 3 runs. Well, Mexico's 9-1 win means Canada is now virtually (there's that word again) out of the tournament.

Canada literally needs the U.S. to lose to South Africa, or it is gone from the World Baseball Classic. Roger Clemens pitches for the U.S. against S. Africa at 3 p.m. EST Friday in Phoenix.

Mexico has advanced already. Either the United States or Canada will advance, but not both.

So how does a team go from 2-0 to being out? The international tiebreakers play a role. The tiebreaker is most runs given up among the three teams that would be tied at 2-1. Canada gave up 6 to the U.S. and 9 to Mexico for 15 runs. The U.S. gave up 0 runs to Mexico and 8 to Canada for 8 runs. Mexico gave up 2 runs to the U.S. and 1 to Canada for 3 runs.

Also, having one team (South Africa) be nowhere near the others in terms of talent hurts Canada. If South Africa loses to the U.S., you have three 2-1 teams and one 0-3 team.

In the game against Mexico, Canada's lone run came in the bottom of the sixth on Pierre-Luc LaForest's bases-loaded walk. Jeff Francis took the loss for Canada.