Harper victory not enough to improve relations

So Stephen Harper is the prime-minister delegate for Canada. Will this change the relationship between the United States and Canada? Despite Harper’s interest in an improved relationship, he may not be able to determine how that goes.

David Frum from the National Post, at the right-wing think tank American Enterprise Institute summit in Washington on Tuesday, put all the focus on the deterioration of the relationship on Jean Chrétien and Paul Martin.

I respectfully disagree. Frum ignores the initial impact that Bush’s silence had on Canada, though he does have bias in that he is a former White House staffer (speechwriter for Bush). Yes, the reactions of Chrétien, Martin, and their staffs have not been completely blameless. But the source of their reactions stems from 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.

Republicans and Democrats alike, when they become president, make it a point to make Canada one of the first stops after taking office. George W. Bush made no such move. In fact, it’s fair to say he ignored Canada throughout his first term, and even up until now. While you could argue that the difference in parties might have been an issue, or the fact that Chrétien and Bill Clinton were friends could have been a factor, consciously ignoring Canada upset many in Canada, including, I would think, those in the Chrétien government. If combinations such as John F. Kennedy and John Diefenbaker as well as Ronald Reagan and Pierre Trudeau could get along, Bush and Chrétien/Martin didn’t seem that implausible. But it never happened.

The consensus was that Bush would spend a lot of time dealing with Vicente Fox and Mexico. Fox and Bush seemed to get along very well, and it’s safe to say Bush’s Spanish is stronger than his French. But Fox would probably tell you that Bush has pretty much ignored him, too. And Fox would be considered a friend.

So even if Bush considers Stephen Harper a friend, there is still no guarantee that Harper will have that much better access to Bush. Harper could do so if he gave ground on troops in Iraq or softwood lumber. However, the second Harper would do either of those deeds would sow his exit from 24 Sussex Drive.

Bush did call Harper to congratulate him on Wednesday, a day later than a call might have come, but the call did come at least. The White House had issued its formal congratulations on Tuesday to Harper. White House press secretary Scott McClellan said the early-morning telephone call lasted 20 minutes, but he would not comment on the specifics of the conversation.

McClellan wouldn’t take the bait when asked to comment on the previous relationship between this White House and Canada. "I'm not going to try to compare one administration to the next," he said. "We congratulate Stephen Harper and the Conservative Party on their victory and look forward to working with them."

Trade, including lumber, beef, and oil; the U.S. ballistic missile defense program; troops in Afghanistan; and border crossings are only some of the issues where Harper and Bush might try to reach some consensus.

With Harper’s government, we won’t see the bitter reactions of being ignored that were a part of the Chrétien and Martin governments. And that can be good news for U.S.-Canada relations. But until the White House understands that Canada and its issues aren’t going to go away, and realizes that Harper can only do so much with a minority government, relations will not significantly change for some time. If that doesn’t happen, it won’t matter who is in Ottawa.